Nasionale Begrotingsrede: Gaan jy meer betaal?

Deur Sanlam gepubliseer

Tydens die 2017 Nasionale Begrotingsrede op 22 Februarie, het die Minister van Finansies, Pravin Gordhan, die regering se beplande uitgawes vir 2017, asook die nuwe belastingkoers bekend gemaak. Gebruik ons handige belastingrekenaar om uit te werk hoe die Nasionale Begroting jou persoonlike inkomste gaan raak.

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5 simple ways to prepare for the next ‘Black Swan’

From Kim Iskyan, Editor, True Wealth Asia:

What event is most likely to cause a financial crisis in Asia in the months ahead? a) collapse of the Chinese real estate market, b) a major drop in the value of the Chinese yuan, c) a Japanese debt crash, d) war over South China Sea islands, or e) none of the above.

If you’re familiar with the Black Swan theory, you would have answered “e) none of the above.” And you’d probably be right.

A “Black Swan” event is an event that is nearly impossible to predict, and which has a massive impact on markets. The term was created by the statistician and author Nassim Taleb, who wrote a book by that name in 2007.

Taleb notes that most of the methods used to predict what will happen in markets rely on what’s happened in the past. But since the past doesn’t foretell the future – especially for something as unpredictable as the stock market – this approach underestimates the chances of something that’s never happened before happening.

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Hoe Gereeld Gebeur Groot Aandele Mark Dalings

Aandele markte wêreldwyd, ook hier in Suid Afrika, het die afgelope twee maande weer ‘n groot skrik gevang na groot dalings.

Die FTSE-JSE Top 40 Indeks en die Amerikaanse S&P500 Indeks het tussen 3 November 2015 en 22 Januarie 2016 beide omtrent 15% gedaal.

Hieronder is ‘n tabel wat ‘n idee gee van hoe gereeld groot markdalings plaasvind. Die data is vir die Dow Jones Industrial Average vanaf 1900 tot Desember 2015. Continue reading

Margin Debt in the USA

Look at margin debt in the USA– the amount of money people are borrowing to invest in stocks.

Much of the growth in stock market valuations is being pushed up by phantom money that doesn’t really exist.

It currently sits deep in the “danger zone,” at the highest level since 1961.

USA stock margin debt

How to buy Shares (stocks)

What are Shares and how to buy Shares (or stocks)

If you buy Shares (also know as Stocks, Equities or Securities) in a Company the shares you own represents a portion of ownership in the company, normally entitling the holder to vote on important corporate matters and to receive dividends if dividends are paid.

The more shares you own, the greater is the amount of the company you own. You can get a slice of the Companies profits by receiving a dividend.

The share price is determined by supply and demand. For a successful and profitable company the shares will become more valuable. More people will see it as a good investment and the share price should rise, shares become more expensive.

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Trending, Trading and Sideways Markets

There is three important market phases: Trending, Trading and Sideways Markets.

• You need to identify and distinguish between these phases.
• We will have a somewhat different approach in our Analysis and Planning depending of the phase.

No market or instrument will go in just one direction for ever, although a Trending phase on a stock/share may sometimes continue for months and even years.

Trending, Trading and Sideways Markets 18oct15

1. Trending Phase

In an uptrend we get Higher Highs and Higher Lows, in a Down Trend Lower Lows and Lower Highs.

For an investor or long term trader this is the most important phase.

An investor will in an uptrend ad to his position on pull backs or corrections. Most often long term investors will have a Buy and Hold view.

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How and When to use a Forward Order

In this discussion I want to show How and When to use a Forward Order.

You got your Tip Off for an Instrument, done your Analysis and Trade Planning (Trading Blue Print) and decided on your Trigger Signal.

Now you must have patience to wait for your Trigger Signal to kick in and to execute the trade.

But, it is not always possible to watch a market 24/7. This might be the case for Intra Day as well as End Of Day trading.

Often, if your trigger is a breakout of some strong support or resistance line, the breakout may be volatile. You might be to slow to enter your trade and may then enter to late at a bad price, or not at all.

This is a good time to make use of a Forward Order. Some forward orders can be quite complicated and may be called different names on the different trading platforms. I will just discuss a simple forward order setup that I use frequently.

How a Forward order work:

The idea of a forward order is to have a Stop or Limit order in the market that will trigger if the price break a line, or touch a line, depending on your Trade Planning. You can also enter your Initial Stop Loss level and set your first Profit Taking target. It is often possible to make a Trailing Stop Loss part of the order.

If you entered this whole order structure you can walk away and know what your risks are if the trade is executed.

Most forward orders have 3 actions you may take.

1. Decide on your entry point:

Stop Order:

If you expect prices to break a certain level before you enter you can use a Stop Order that will trigger if prices trade through your level. Remember that if price only touch the level it will not trade.

You Stop Order price should be a few pips/ticks below a support breakout, or a few pips above a resistance breakout.

Remember that your chances of getting a fill is good if the price trade through your levels, but you might get a worse price than what you entered if there is a gap open or some slippage due to volatility in price movement.

Be careful of using this order before an important market announcement.

Limit Order:

If you would for example expect price to retrace back to a certain strong support or resistance level before you enter you will use a Limit Order.

If price retraced as you expected and touch your level you should get a fill.

In the example below you will use a Stop Order for a breakout at 1 and 4. It would have been difficult to enter these trades without a forward order.

At 2 and 3 you would use a Limit Order to enter when price touch the 100 mva. In 2 prices just briefly touched the 100 mva, without the forward order you would probably have bought at a higher price.

Forward Order example 1 5oct15

2. Decide on your initial Stop Loss level:

This will be a Stop Order

You can now enter your Initial Stop Loss level. It is often possible to enter your Stop Loss as a Trailing Stop Loss. If price make big moves and you are not there to take action your Trailing Stop Loss should capture some profit.

The Trailing Stop Loss should not be to close, you do not want to be stopped out if there is only a small pullback.

3. Decide on your Profit Taking levels:

This order will be a Limit Order.

You can now enter you first Profit Taking Target level. I believe it to be extremely important to take some profit (25% to 50% of your position) at the first strong support or resistance level. Not all trades will be a home run.

This is even more important if you trade Intra Day, very often this first profit you take might be your only profit for the trade.